The Return of Nuclear Energy in Germany: A Renewed Debate Ahead of Early Elections?

As early elections are expected in early 2025, the CDU/CSU, leading in the polls, is proposing a return to nuclear energy. In a country that shut down its last reactors in 2023, the issue remains deeply divisive.

At COP29, held this week in Baku, Azerbaijan, Rafael Grossi, Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), commented on Germany’s energy policy, stating that returning to nuclear energy would be “logical” and “rational.” These remarks carry particular weight as the CDU/CSU, the main opposition party, is currently leading in the polls for the upcoming legislative elections.

The Coalition Breakdown

On 16 December, Olaf Scholz will face a Bundestag vote of confidence, a challenge widely expected to end in defeat due to the collapse of the coalition between the Social Democrats, Greens, and Liberals[1]. German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier will then have three weeks to dissolve the lower house of parliament. The CDU/CSU, which initially led the phase-out of nuclear energy following the Fukushima disaster in 2011 under Angela Merkel, is now advocating for reopening[2] the nuclear debate.

A Possible Return to Nuclear Energy?

While the Fukushima disaster in March 2011 fueled anti-nuclear energy policies, Germany is the only country in the world to have shut down all its nuclear reactors. The operation of the last three, which were closed in April 2023, had been temporarily extended during the energy crisis, a decision that sparked growing criticism. According to some polls, two out of three Germans opposed shutting down the last reactors at that time. In this new context, the CDU/CSU is proposing in its policy framework[3], titled “Living in Freedom,” to reintegrate nuclear energy into the country’s energy mix as an essential complement to renewable energies.

A Complex Coalition System

However, Germany’s political system, based on coalitions, will make future negotiations challenging. Energy policy is likely to be a divisive issue in upcoming alliances. While the CDU/CSU shares certain common goals with the SPD, such as developing hydrogen infrastructure and modernizing energy networks, the two parties remain deeply divided on nuclear energy.

Yet, according to a recent study published in the International Journal of Sustainable Energy, if Germany had maintained or expanded its nuclear fleet, it could have decarbonized its economy more effectively and saved hundreds of billions of euros. These findings are fueling the debate and reinforcing the notion that abandoning nuclear energy may have been a strategic error. ■