Market Outlook for SMRs/AMRs in France – E-Cube/Sfen Study

In the context of a renewed commitment to nuclear energy by the French government, confirmed during the parliamentary debate of 30 April 2025, the Sfen commissioned a study from the consulting firm E-CUBE to assess the market outlook for small modular reactors of the SMR/AMR type in France. This initiative follows on from the France 2030 programme, which supports around ten national small-scale fission reactor projects at various stages of development. Globally, nearly 80 SMR/AMR concepts have been identified, illustrating the rise of this sector as a complement to large-scale reactors.

The study aims to identify the concrete applications these small reactors could serve – particularly in terms of low-carbon heat and electricity – and to determine the territories where their deployment would be technically relevant. On the thermal side, the results are significant: the demand for decarbonised heat that could technically be addressed by SMRs/AMRs is estimated at more than 80 TWh per year today, potentially exceeding 100 TWh by 2050. This would correspond to an installed capacity of around 12.5 GWth, or roughly 250 modules of 50 MWth. These needs span industry (the main consumption sector), urban heating networks, and new emerging uses such as low-carbon hydrogen production or carbon capture and utilisation.

Regarding electricity, the study builds on RTE’s “Futurs énergétiques 2050” N03 scenario, which assumes 4 GWe of electricity-producing SMRs by 2050. It highlights opportunities to meet localised needs, particularly those linked to the electrification of industrial processes or the rapid growth in electricity consumption by data centres, either supporting or substituting for reinforcements of the national power grid.

Based on these findings, the Sfen issues several strategic recommendations. It calls for an evolution of the regulatory framework and support schemes for decarbonised heat, which today are focused exclusively on renewable and recovered energy sources. A technologically neutral approach, fully integrating innovative nuclear solutions, is deemed necessary to secure industrial investment. The Sfen further recommends the rapid launch, from the early 2030s, of two light-water SMR projects on complementary sites (one existing, one new), as well as the deployment of two advanced reactor demonstrators: one based on a mature technology, the other designed for experimental purposes. Finally, it urges local authorities to begin preparing consultations on the integration of SMRs/AMRs into their regional energy roadmaps, drawing in particular on citizen expectations identified in the 2024 OpinionWay study. ■