Winter 2023-2024: a very significant increase in nuclear availability
RTE has presented its outlook for the winter of 2023-2024 regarding the electrical system. There are no concerns about the supply-demand balance, thanks to continued control of consumption, significantly improved availability of the nuclear fleet, and high levels of hydroelectric and gas storage. The “Ecowatt” alert system is also being reinstated with a new indicator showing the low carbon nature of electricity, encouraging the French to shift their consumption to these times.
“The study parameters are all more positively oriented than last year,” says Thomas Veyrenc, Director of Strategy, Prospective and Evaluation at RTE. Nuclear and hydroelectric power, which accounted for 67% and 13% of electricity production in 2020, respectively, are entering this winter with better availability conditions than last year. In 2022, the total volume of electricity produced in France was 15% lower than in 2021, with nuclear (-82 TWh) and hydroelectric (-12 TWh) productions significantly reduced.
No difficulties expected on the network
The risk to the electrical network’s balance is considered very low for November and low for the rest of the winter. This is due to lower consumption than before the health crisis and better availability of production facilities, including those of our European neighbours. Electricity consumption in France continues to be 8-9% below pre-health crisis levels. RTE notes that electricity prices and the government’s sobriety plan “support the vision of very low electricity consumption in the coming months.”
Regarding production, nuclear availability is “one of the most structuring perimeters for our supply security,” reminds Thomas Veyrenc. This autumn, nuclear availability was 10 GW higher than last year. RTE predicts a continuous rise to reach 50 GW of available nuclear capacity by January 2024. This increase is partly due to the reconnection of reactors affected by stress corrosion cracking, specifically the most powerful ones in the fleet (1,450 MWe). RTE also notes that EDF has completed preventive replacement work on 5 of the 7 reactors planned for 2023, “with overall downtime shorter than initially announced.”
Thus, the uncertainty of the impact of stress corrosion cracking on nuclear fleet availability “has reduced compared to the first half of the year,” notes RTE. As a result, the risk premium that penalized France in the electricity futures markets has dissipated. Prices are now aligned with the variable costs of gas-fired plants.
Finally, marked by exceptional drought in 2022, hydroelectric stocks have been replenished in spring and early autumn 2023, reaching levels above historical averages. It’s also noteworthy that gas stocks are almost full in France while consumption remains low. Stocks in neighbouring Germany, Italy, and the Netherlands are also filled to 99%.
The Ecowatt system reinstated
RTE is reinstating the Ecowatt system to remind of energy-saving measures and manage demand by issuing alerts when the electrical network is under strain. Beyond network balance, the system now signals consumers when French production is particularly low in carbon. Specifically, Ecowatt indicates when low-carbon French electric production (nuclear, hydroelectric, wind, etc.) covers the country’s consumption. This does not mean that there will be no thermal power plants operating for export, RTE clarifies. “By favouring low-carbon production hours for consumption, French production can approach zero emissions,” Ecowatt displays. ■