France on Track for a New Electricity Export Record

The grid operator RTE predicts record-breaking electricity exports thanks to the rebound in nuclear and hydropower production amidst declining domestic consumption.

On 13 November, RTE released its forecasts for the 2024-2025 winter season and announced a new electricity export record. The operator confirmed[1] during its presentation that exports have already reached 78 TWh, surpassing the previous record set in 2002 (77 TWh). According to RTE, this figure is expected to reach approximately 85 TWh by the end of 2024.

This “is the result of French low-carbon electricity production (nuclear and renewables), which is competitive in European markets and therefore frequently used to supply European consumption,” RTE explained. In addition to increased production, French electricity consumption remains 6% below the average for 2014-2019.

The Resurgence of Nuclear Power Production

Following challenging years in 2022 and 2023 due to the impacts of the pandemic and the discovery of stress corrosion cracking issues on certain reactors, the availability of the nuclear fleet has improved significantly, with nearly 50 GW available as of early November 2024. This represents “9 to 17 GW more than in 2023,” according to RTE. “The return of nine additional reactors between early November and January should also increase the fleet’s availability during the heart of winter, although maintenance shutdowns are planned for eight reactors in February.” Reflecting this recovery, EDF raised its nuclear production target to 340-360 TWh in early September and confirmed it a month later, compared to the 320.4 TWh actually produced in 2023[2].

Hydropower Plants Could Also Set New Records

While hydropower generation was significantly affected by drought in 2022, RTE notes an “exceptionally high hydropower output, reaching over 62 TWh by the end of October, around 40% higher than the same period in 2023.” This year’s hydropower production could approach the record of the past 15 years (2013, 75.5 TWh).

For more details on cross-border electricity exchanges, visit the RTE’s éCO2mix platform. ■