EDF Once Again Revises Upward Its Nuclear Production Forecast for 2024

EDF is steadily approaching its target of 400 TWh of nuclear production. With just weeks remaining in the year, the group anticipates producing between 358 and 364 TWh in 2024. This reflects the successful management of maintenance related to stress corrosion cracking, as well as the progress achieved under the “Start 2025” programme for optimising reactor outages.

EDF’s nuclear fleet is undoubtedly returning to high levels of performance. On 11 December 2024, EDF revised its nuclear production forecast for the current year upward. The new range of 358–364 TWh compares favourably with the previous estimate of 340–360 TWh. In September, EDF had already raised its forecast from an earlier range of 315–345 TWh.

This improvement stems from enhanced industrial management of reactor outages, a critical factor in maximising production. EDF has made significant progress in addressing stress corrosion cracking issues, which had reduced production to a historic low of 279 TWh in 2022. Since taking office in November 2022, EDF CEO Luc Rémont has accelerated repair programmes and optimised industrial operations.

The Success of Start 2025

EDF’s roadmap for industrial excellence is the “START 2025” plan, launched in 2019 to optimise reactor outages. This programme, structured around four strategic pillars, aims to fundamentally transform the operational management of nuclear sites:

• Standardisation of methods: Harmonising procedures to ensure efficiency in interventions.
• Knowledge capitalisation: Leveraging experience and improving outage preparation.
• Resource optimisation: Creating shared teams and targeted skill management.
• Continuous training: Enhancing expertise for critical technical tasks.

The programme’s impact is already evident. In 2023, over 70% of outages adhered to the key milestone of initial unloading, compared to just 10% in 2021 and 40% in 2022. Outage extensions have been reduced by one-third, and the rate of unplanned unavailability has stabilised at under 3.5%. This progress directly improved production capacity during the winter of 2023–2024, adding 5–10 GW of available power compared to the previous winter.

Heading Towards 400 TWh

EDF is now on track to achieve the symbolic milestone of 400 TWh of annual nuclear production by 2030. This goal will become even more attainable when the Flamanville EPR is connected to the electrical grid, which is expected no later than 21 December 2024. ■